For solo use of a high resistance risk fungicide, the median emergence time of resistance was highest for the lowest dose rate of the high-risk fungicide that could provide effective control of an average epidemic of M. graminicola on winter wheat. If the spore is sensitive to the fungicide applied in the neighbouring area, it is unlikely to survive. Accounting for spatial variation may therefore decrease the survival probability of resistant mutants and increase the emergence time of resistance. Thirdly, in the absence of peer-reviewed data, we have assumed that the mutation probability is not increased by the exposure to fungicides. Finally, when a low-risk and a high-risk fungicide are applied in a mixture, we have assumed that both fungicides act independently on the life-cycle parameters of the pathogen strain. The last two assumptions can however be changed by small adjustments to the model equations. This initial analysis of fungicide resistance emergence opens several lines of future enquiry. Although several experiments have shown that environmental stress can increase the mutation rate in bacteria, a recent review found no published studies on the effect of the dose rate of fungicides on the probability of mutations which decrease the sensitivity of pathogens to fungicides. Future work should test if there is a relationship between dose rate and the probability of such mutations, ONC212 as this may change the current conclusion that mixing a low-risk with a high-risk fungicide increases the emergence time. It would be useful to develop a stochastic model that describes both the emergence phase and the selection phase in the evolution of fungicide resistance. This would allow the calculation of a distribution for the time from the introduction of a fungicide on the market to the loss of effective disease control due to the evolution of resistance. In addition, a spatial version of such a model would provide insight into spatial differences in the evolution of resistance. At the end of the emergence phase the number of resistant lesions in the pathogen population is very small and large areas will still be occupied by a completely sensitive pathogen population. The time from the introduction of a fungicide on the market to the loss of effective control will therefore differ between wheat growing regions, depending on the rate of dispersal. So far, we have used our model to analyse the effect of the dose rate of a high-risk fungicide on the emergence time of resistance and the usefulness of mixing a low-risk and a high-risk fungicide for delaying the emergence of resistance to the high-risk fungicide. The usefulness of other anti-resistance ROC-325 strategies remains to be evaluated. Finally, more research is needed to determine the effect of exposure to a mixture of fungicides on the life-cycle parameters of pathogen strains. In this model, we have assumed that fungicides act independently on life-cycle parameters. Deviations from this assumption will change the efficacy of fungicide mixtures and therefore the size of the sensitive pathogen population, which in turn influences the mutation rate and the ability of mutant spores to survive. In order to experimentally determine the emergence time of resistance, an emergence threshold must be defined above which the resistant strain is unlikely to become extinct if the fungicide treatment continues.