Limited settings mortality shortages and limited diagnostic capacity for morbidities and infections

Key program characteristics include the standardisation of first-line and second-line regimens, simplified clinical decision-making, and standardised clinical and laboratory monitoring. The choice of regimens is determined primarily by cost and can include drugs that are no longer widely used in industrialized countries. In Switzerland, by contrast, doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, resistance testing is used to individually tailor drug regimens, and CD4 cell counts and viral load are monitored frequently. We found that the determinants of loss to follow-up differed in Zambia and Switzerland. In the African setting, sicker patients were more likely to be lost to follow-up, confirming previous studies from resource-limited settings. In Switzerland, there was a trend in the opposite direction, in line with results from the French Hospital Database on HIV, which found that a history of an AIDS-defining illness was associated with reduced loss to follow-up, and the UK CHIC and Hospital of Bergamo cohorts where loss to follow-up was associated with a higher CD4 cell count. We sought to illustrate the importance of competing risks when investigating the association between CD4 cell counts and loss to follow-up in Zambia and Switzerland. For example, we did not consider the different transmission groups in the SHCS but previous analyses showed that loss to follow-up was more common among VE-822 current intravenous drug users compared to former IDUs and other risk groups. Patients lost to follow-up are systematically traced in the SHCS to ascertain outcomes, but are not consistently traced in the CIDRZ cohort. Even when program resources are available, a significant proportion of patients cannot be contacted. Reasons for follow-up losses are thus often unknown. Similarly, causes of deaths are not routinely collected in the CIDRZ cohort and no national death registries exist in Zambia to supplement this information. Furthermore, we used an intentionto-treat approach and thus ignored subsequent changes to treatment including interruptions and terminations. An alternative approach would have been to account for treatment changes and time varying covariates by the use of inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights as in Cole et al. Since drug interruptions and reasons for interruptions are not recorded systematically in the CIDRZ cohort we could not, however, use this approach. The results obtained for mortality also deserve comment. It is important to note that cumulative mortality estimates from both the competing risk analysis and the Kaplan-Meier analysis may not be representative of all patients starting ART in the CIDRZ cohort. The competing risk analysis relates to patients remaining in care and thus estimates mortality during follow-up only: mortality in patients lost to follow up is not considered. The Kaplan-Meier method assumes that those lost to follow-up experience the same mortality as comparable patients remaining in care, ignoring the fact that in resource.

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